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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET IS STILL STRUGGLING TO FIND FIRM FOOTING
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to be weak and the BDI closed slightly lower at 997 points or fell 1.96 pct week on week. The cape in ...
Friday, 09 May 14
RBCT SHIPPED 5.4 MMT OF COAL IN APRIL
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the single largest coal export terminal in the world, shipped 5.45 million to ...
Friday, 09 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET: BANKRUPTCY TONNAGE UNLEASHED
Drewry’s latest Dry Bulk Forecaster saw freight rates on most routes declined in 2014’s first quarter as the previous quarter’ ...
Friday, 09 May 14
UNITED STATES COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY SLIDES TO 82.4 MMST IN APRIL
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Thursday, 08 May 14
'TRIAL BY MEDIA, TRIAL BY LAW' - A REPORT FROM TRACK 1 OF BIMCO'S ANNUAL CONFERENCE DUBAI 2014
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Aiming to bring a very different type of event into their annual conference, BIMCO presented ‘Double Jeopardy &n ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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