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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 May 14
USA COAL CONFERENCE
Press Release: IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), the leading global source of information and analysis, will host the Coal USA Conference, June 18-20, 2014, ...
Wednesday, 14 May 14
COAL PRICES IN CHINA HAVE DROPPED TO THEIR LOWEST LEVELS SINCE END-2008
COALspot.com: Coal prices in China have dropped to their lowest levels since end-2008, Fitch says in its latest rating report on one of the coal ...
Tuesday, 13 May 14
NPC COAL EXPORT VOLUMES PLUNGE TO 2.48 MMT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 12 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Quee ...
Tuesday, 13 May 14
YET ANOTHER POSIDONIA EXHIBITION IS ON ITS WAY - INTERMODAL
With less than a month to go before another Posidonia exhibition starts and all the parties and celebrations get under way we thought that it wo ...
Monday, 12 May 14
TAIPOWER TO IMPORT AROUND 1 MMT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL DURING AUGUST 2014 THROUGH NOVEMBER 2014
COALspot.com - Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 1.050 million tons of sub-bituminous coal for Taipower thermal power plant through open t ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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