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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 May 14
USA COAL CONFERENCE
Press Release: IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), the leading global source of information and analysis, will host the Coal USA Conference, June 18-20, 2014, ...
Wednesday, 14 May 14
COAL PRICES IN CHINA HAVE DROPPED TO THEIR LOWEST LEVELS SINCE END-2008
COALspot.com: Coal prices in China have dropped to their lowest levels since end-2008, Fitch says in its latest rating report on one of the coal ...
Tuesday, 13 May 14
NPC COAL EXPORT VOLUMES PLUNGE TO 2.48 MMT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 12 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Quee ...
Tuesday, 13 May 14
YET ANOTHER POSIDONIA EXHIBITION IS ON ITS WAY - INTERMODAL
With less than a month to go before another Posidonia exhibition starts and all the parties and celebrations get under way we thought that it wo ...
Monday, 12 May 14
TAIPOWER TO IMPORT AROUND 1 MMT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL DURING AUGUST 2014 THROUGH NOVEMBER 2014
COALspot.com - Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 1.050 million tons of sub-bituminous coal for Taipower thermal power plant through open t ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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