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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 26 May 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDO COAL SWAP Q1' 15 DELIVERIES CLOSED AT US$ 59.40 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 26 May 14
Q3 14 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS LOST 2.24% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 2.24 percent month on month and closed at US$ 73.88 per mt as on F ...
Monday, 26 May 14
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY RISES BY 78% IN DWT TONNAGE OVER THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF THE YEARS, AS OWNERS INVEST$40.5 BN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners have plunged into newbuilding orders during the first four months of the year, as overall newbuilding business ended for the first four ...
Sunday, 25 May 14
FREIGHT RATES FROM SOUTH KALIMANTAN TO EAST COAST INDIAN PORTS WERE ASSESSED AT $9.50/MT
COALspot.com: The BDI was closed at 964 points down by 6.13 pct week on week. The Cape Index was lost 172 points or 11.24% week on week and closing ...
Saturday, 24 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET'S RECOVERY IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER SAYS SHIPOWNER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the weaker than expected market sentiment in the dry bulk market over the course of the past few months, analysts and shipowners alike appe ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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