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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seabo ...
Tuesday, 20 May 14
NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME UP 39.11 PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 19 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, ...
Tuesday, 20 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO IMPROVE OVER THE COURSE OF 2014, BUT OVERSUPPLY STILL AN ISSUE SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST
As a gruelling first quarter edges closer to the end, dry bulk ship owners are looking at an improved second quarter demand, which, coupled with sl ...
Tuesday, 20 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET IS BOUND FOR A RECOVERY CLAIMS PARAGON SHIPPING'S HEAD MICHAEL BODOUROGLOU
The dry bulk market is bound for a recovery in the coming weeks, as the market will be better balanced, said Mr. Michael Bodouroglou, Chairman and ...
Monday, 19 May 14
INDO COAL SWAPS FOR AVERAGE Q3' 2014 DELIVERY LOST ON WEEK AND ON MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports release ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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