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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 30 May 14
US COAL PRODUCTION RELATIVELY FLAT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Thursday, 29 May 14
PEABODY ENERGY CHAIRMAN RECEIVES WCA AWARD
The World Coal Association has presented Gregory H. Boyce, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU), with the 2014 Chairm ...
Thursday, 29 May 14
HANDY : THE SUPRAS ARE BEING TRADED AROUND 13K FOR SHORTER UPTO 1 YEAR PERIOD
Handy
The week started off with bank holidays in London and very little happening. This trend has continued and we believe it will continue into ...
Wednesday, 28 May 14
THE DRY BULK MARKET REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market remained under pressure during this past week, with all indices pointing down compared to the previous Friday. Th ...
Tuesday, 27 May 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 19.13% LESS COAL THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 26 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
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