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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 04 June 14
SKULD: DIVERSIFICATION AND A ROBUST BOTTOM LINE
In February, I was delighted to ring in the new policy year with the Skuld team following a solid renewal round and a strong year. 2013 was, in man ...
Monday, 02 June 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS LOST GROUND THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 02 June 14
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP WAS SHOWING A POSITIVE MOVE IN Q4, INSTEAD OF THIS WEEK'S WEAK TREND
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 3.39 percent month on month and closed at US$ 72.65 per mt as on F ...
Sunday, 01 June 14
INDO - INDIA SUPRMAX FREIGHT RATES CONTINUED TO DOWN THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was soft this past week as all sectors soften particularly Panamax index was lost 129 points or 12.88% week on wee ...
Friday, 30 May 14
CLEAN COAL PROCESSING & CONVERSION ASIA SUMMIT 2014
Clean Coal Processing & Conversion Asia Summit 2014 will be held on Nov 20-21st, 2014 in Jakarta, Indonesia.
With the cooperation of ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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