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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 23 May 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIPS 1.8% WEEK ENDED MAY 17, 2014
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Friday, 23 May 14
DRY BULK NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS COULD HELP SUPPORT MARKET IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market's demise over the past few months maybe has come as a surprise to many, but analysts and shipbrokers are looking forward to ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
HEAR SUCCESSFUL CASE STUDIES FROM 10 INDEPENDENT UNCONVENTIONAL GAS OPERATORS
Unconventional Gas Asia 2014 will provide a unique opportunity for Asia’s unconventional gas leaders to share their experience and expertise ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
CNPC-GAZPROM DEAL A MEDIUM - TERM POSITIVE FOR CHINA'S GAS SECTOR
Fitch Ratings says a 30-year deal in which Russia's OAO Gazprom (BBB/Negative) will supply gas to China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC; A ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
CAPESIZE : RATES ARE STILL UNDER PRESSURE
Handy
A quiet start into the week in Far East, some fresh Indonesian coal order in the market. For trips within S.E. Asia, Supras are trading aro ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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