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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 07 June 14
U.S. MONTHLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN MAY 2014
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.2 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Friday, 06 June 14
RICHARDS BAY COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 4.221 MMT OF COAL TO SOUTHERN ASIAN COUNTRIES IN MAY
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the single largest export coal terminal in the world, shipped 5.58 million tons ...
Thursday, 05 June 14
RBCT SOUTH AFRICA SHIPPED 21% LESS COAL IN APRIL COMPARED TO MARCH EXPORTS
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the single largest export coal terminal in the world, shipped 5.45 million tons ...
Thursday, 05 June 14
PANAMAX : THIS WEEK STARTED IN A SLOW PACE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
After last week's silent and unexciting week we see some more activity this week, especially from the South American market. The rates ...
Thursday, 05 June 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 2.91 MMT OF COAL IN THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The figure constitutes a 4.30 percent higher compared to the previous week, following a week on week decreased of 19.13 percent recor ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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