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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 June 14
INDO SUB-BIT COAL SWAPS FOR Q3,Q4 OF 2014 AND Q1 2015: LOST ON DAY AND MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 continue last week’s trend or lost on day, week and on month according to Asia ...
Monday, 09 June 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP Q3 14 DELIVERIES LOST 4.61% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 4.61 percent month on month and closed at US$ 71.62 per mt a ...
Sunday, 08 June 14
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR PANAMXES TO REMAIN VOLATILE; NO IMPROVEMENTS SEEN OVER THE WEEK
COALspot.com: Cape index increase pushes BDI index to 989 points week on week. The BDI firmed up by 5.88 pct and closed at 989 points week ended 6 ...
Saturday, 07 June 14
EVERYTHING CHANGES, AND NOTHING ABIDES - HERACLITUS
A couple of weeks ago, and while everyone was focusing on the struggling freight market, Russia and China made history by signing a three-decade lo ...
Saturday, 07 June 14
FIRST BITE AT ANTI-CORRUPTION CLAUSE - BIMCO
In recent years a number of countries have introduced anti-corruption legislation which, unfortunately, fails to recognise the practical implicatio ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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