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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 03 February 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CONTRACTS FALL
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1 14 delivery lost 4.71 percent month on month and closed at US$ 78.87 per mt as on Frid ...
Monday, 03 February 14
COAL FREIGHT RATES REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: The BDI is fell 50 pct over last one month which seems to be one of the lowest fall in last few years.
The BDI was down by 11 ...
Friday, 31 January 14
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED APPROXIMATELY 19.2 MMST W-O-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.2 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 31 January 14
DRY BULK MARKET STILL ON A FALL, EXPECTED TO WORSEN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market is definitely in the doldrums since the start of the year, in what could only be described as a "lost" month for indus ...
Thursday, 30 January 14
JPU SETTLEMENT PRICE AS A BENCHMARK WILL DECLINE IN IMPORTANCE BUT REMAIN RELEVANT, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
JPU price will remain above spot, trending closer to spot till 2015 then increasing to 2035.
Japanese Power Utilities (JPU) are approaching a cru ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
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