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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 28 January 14
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS RETREAT TO OLD 'HABITS', REFUSING TO DEMOLISH OLD VESSELS, THREATENING MARKET RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
If one thing is clear as we reflect on the 2013 shipping markets, it's that ship owners took advantage of low prices, in order to acquire newer ton ...
Monday, 27 January 14
MERCATOR SINGAPORE REPORTS 52% INCREASE IN EBITDA FOR Q3 FY 2014 AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS QUARTER
COALspot.com: Mercator Lines (Singapore) Limited, a leading Indian-owned international dry bulk shipping company that operates a fleet of fourteen d ...
Monday, 27 January 14
13TH CLEAN COAL FORUM 2014
COALspot.com: (Press Release) - Produced by CDMC Events, The 13th Clean Coal Forum 2014 will be held on June 12 &13 2014 in Beijing, China. We a ...
Monday, 27 January 14
Q3 & Q4 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WEAK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1 14 delivery lost 4.45 percent month on month and closed at US$ 79.05 per mt as on Frid ...
Monday, 27 January 14
Q3 2014 SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOST GROUND, ENDS AT $60 PMT
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost 2.29% pmt month on month on Friday 24 January 2014. Th ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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