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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 06 February 14
PANAMAX: FAR EAST IS ALMOST ABSENT AND ATLANTIC ON SLOW STEAM
Handy
Due to ongoing Chinese New Year the market is still quiet. Slowly we can see some fresh coal cargos entering the market with second half Feb/ ...
Wednesday, 05 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET HAS LOST FURTHER GROUND THIS PAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market has lost further ground this past week as activity ex-Far East disappeared into the Chinese holidays and owners id ...
Wednesday, 05 February 14
MARKET INSIGHT - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COALspot.com: Let's take a break from market prospects, numbers, order book etc. and shed some light on the conclusions of ...
Tuesday, 04 February 14
NEWCASTLE PORT'S WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS HIT NEW HIGH OF 3.53 MMT
COALspot.com: In the week ended 3 February 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled ...
Monday, 03 February 14
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP GAINED WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – Swaps prices gained for thermal coal loading from Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the fuel, according SGX.
...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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