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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 10 February 14
SUPRAMAX STILL AT AROUND US$ 5K + BB 50K DELIVERY KALIMANTAN FOR A TRIP TO INDIA - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com: The BDI was down by 1.71 pct and closed at 1091 points week ended 7 February 2014. The BDI seemed to reach the bottom as the cape inde ...
Saturday, 08 February 14
U.S PRODUCED 84.5 MMMST OF COAL IN JANUARY; 2.05% UP MONTH ON MONTH, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 07 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET ON ' REVERSE' MODE DUE TO CHINESE HOLIDAYS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept its uninspiring mood throughout yet another week, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) hovering slightly above the 1,000-poi ...
Thursday, 06 February 14
INDONESIA'S BAN ON THE EXPORT OF RAW MINERAL ORES COMES INTO FORCE - INCE & CO
COALspot.com: On 12 January 2014, the ban on the export of unprocessed mineral ores came into effect in Indonesia. This ban enforces the Mining Law ...
Thursday, 06 February 14
THE WORLD LARGEST COAL EXPORTER SHIPPED AROUND 35.90 MMT OF COAL IN DECEMBER 2013
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world 4th largest coal producer and the Global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $2* billion worth ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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