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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 30 January 14
PANAMAX MARKET IS SOFTENING ON LESS ACTIVITY IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
In the Atlantic rates have been slowly sliding but ows can still achieve decent money for TArv´s. USG positions still being fixed in re ...
Thursday, 30 January 14
TANKER PROFITABILITY IS THE 'MILLION-DOLLAR' QUESTION FOR SHIP OWNERS THIS YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The tanker market conditions are expected to remain challenging throughout the year for tanker owners, but even more pressing will be the issue of a ...
Tuesday, 28 January 14
GLOBAL COKING AND STEAM COAL PRODUCTION HAVE GROWN 2% TO 3% TO ABOUT 7.1 BILLION TONNES AS OF THE END OF 2013 - VDKI
COALspot.com (Press Release): Initial figures on the world hard coal market at the VDKi ((Association of Coal Importers - German) New Year’s R ...
Tuesday, 28 January 14
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS JUMP 13.75% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 27 January 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled ...
Tuesday, 28 January 14
RESOURCE NATIONALISM OR PROTECTIONISM FOR THE MINING AND EXTRACTIVES INDUSTRY - JOHN WHITTAKER & MICHAEL SWANGARD
Resource nationalism or protectionism for the mining and extractives industry as well as soft commodities sector and the oil industry.
‘Res ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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