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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 February 14
2013 WAS THE YEAR OF PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDING - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
COALspot.com: People say that money makes the world go round. Well, can it be that it’s the other way around? Is it possible that money needs ...
Tuesday, 11 February 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAP SHOWS STRONG GROWTH IN 2014 SECOND HALF
COALspot.com – Swaps prices slide for thermal coal loading from Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the fuel, according SGX.
T ...
Tuesday, 11 February 14
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS SLIDE AROUND 15% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 10 February 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled ...
Tuesday, 11 February 14
SHIP OWNERS INVEST IN 447 NEWBUILDINGS AND SECOND HAND VESSELS DURING JANUARY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite a rough start to the year for the dry bulk freight market and lackluster performance from most other shipping sub-segments, ship owners have ...
Monday, 10 February 14
Q1 2015, API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AROUND $ 2 HIGHER THAN Q2 14 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 delivery lost 2.61 percent month on month and closed at US$ 77.28 per mt as on Frid ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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