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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS


Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38%  of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities,  while in some commodities,  such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.

Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related  to shadow banking in China and  the problems it has caused in the  real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and  banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18  bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to  these most recent developments we could  be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and  a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as  60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008  and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the  thousands of constructed apartment blocks across  the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.

All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well  be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as  India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins  as  champions of economic development, are currently now here close  to  filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand,  China still plays a pivotal role in  the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to  that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping  industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time  to  reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped  dramatically over the past two  years there is a very different threat that needs to  be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and  in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to  cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the  past.

They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are  still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There  are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage  are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping  industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could  spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly. 

Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis |
g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr

Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.



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