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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 16 February 14
SUPRAMAX : THE FAR EAST/SE ASIA CHARTER RATES FIRMED UP
COALspot.com: The freight market had a mixed reaction this week with BDI increased by 1.37 pct and closing at 1106 points on Valentine day. The cape ...
Friday, 14 February 14
US COAL PRODUCTION STILL SLIPPING
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 17.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 13 February 14
PANAMAX : NOT ENOUGH REQUIREMENTS TO KEEP THE ATLANTIC MARKET FLOATING - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
After the Chinese holidays the week started on a positive note. Owners are talking higher rates but chrtrs are still somehow reluctant to mov ...
Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the ba ...
Wednesday, 12 February 14
NEW BUILDING ORDERS REACHING NEW POST-CRISIS HEIGHTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners are looking to take advantage of the last few attractive deals in the new building market, before prices start climbing to new highs and ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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