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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 20 February 14
SUPRAMAX: IN ASIA IS IMPROVING SIGNIFICANTLY AND TURNED FROM APS TO DOP MARKET
Handy
The activity is back in the market after Chinese holidays. Supramax in Asia is improving significantly and turned from APS to DOP market. We ...
Wednesday, 19 February 14
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 30% MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 17 February 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled ...
Tuesday, 18 February 14
PERUVIAN HIGH COMMISSIONER FOR MINING AFFAIRS WILL BE KEY NOTE SPEAKER AT THE COLOMBIAN COAL CONFERENCE 2014
Press Release: The High Commissioner for Mining Affairs in the Presidency of the Peruvian Council of Ministers, General (R) Daniel Urresti Elera, ha ...
Monday, 17 February 14
US COAL PRODUCTION IN 2013 FELL TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL IN 20 YEARS
COALspot.com: U.S coal production for 2013 totaled an estimated 996 million short tons (MMst), 21 MMst (2%) lower than in 2012. It is the first time ...
Monday, 17 February 14
Q1 2015 COAL SWAPS CLOSED $ 2.21 HIGHER THAN Q2 2014 SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 delivery lost 3.16 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.12 per mt as o ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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