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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 23 March 14
THE COAL FREIGHT RATES SEEN SLIGHTLY FIRMING UP THIS WEEK - REDDY
COALspot.com: The freight market firmed up this week. BDI was up 8.26 pct week on week and index was closed at 1599 points. The Cape index was u ...
Saturday, 22 March 14
SHIP OWNERS INVEST $15 BILLION FOR NEWBUILDINGS AND SECONDHAND VESSELS DURING FEBRUARY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners have kept on their aggressive stance in the investment scene both for newbuildings, as well as for secondhand vessels globally durin ...
Friday, 21 March 14
DRY BULK MARKET STAYS ON RECOVERY MODE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has reached new year heighs, as a result of renewed Capesize demand. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended yesterday's sessio ...
Friday, 21 March 14
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 1.5%; WEST MISSISSIPPI COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 1.85% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.0 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Friday, 21 March 14
MERCURIA ANNOUNCES ACQUISITION OF J.P. MORGAN PHYSICAL COMMODITIES BUSINESS
COALspot.com: Mercuria Energy Group announced that it has reached a definitive agreement with J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. to acquire its physica ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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