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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 26 March 14
LARGE AMOUNT OF VESSELS CHARTERED TO HAUL IRON ORE CARGOES TO CHINESE BUYERS THIS WEEK - COMMODORE RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY
COALspot.com: Through the first three days of this week, 18 dry bulk vessels have been chartered to haul spot iron ore cargoes to Chinese buyers ...
Wednesday, 26 March 14
JOIN IN THE CLEAN COAL CASE STUDY WITH SINOPEC!
Produced by CDMC Events, The 13th Clean Coal Forum 2014 will be held on June 12,13, 2014 in Beijing, China. We are glad to invite Experts ...
Tuesday, 25 March 14
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAP FOR Q2 DELIVERY CLOSED $ 57.40 PMT W/E 21 MARCH 2014
COALspot.com – Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the thermal coal's swaps for delivery April - June 2014 gained this pa ...
Tuesday, 25 March 14
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMP 29.16% TO 2.79 MMT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 24 March 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, total 2.79 ...
Monday, 24 March 14
SGX'S Q2'14 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSES SLIGHTLY HIGHER W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 1.81 percent month on month and closed at US$ 74.82 per mt as o ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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