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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 18 March 14
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORT VOLUME FALLS 26.23% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 17 March 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, total 2 ...
Monday, 17 March 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FOR AVERAGE Q2 14 DELIVERIES LOST 2.59% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 2.59 percent month on month and closed at US$ 74.15 per mt as o ...
Sunday, 16 March 14
BDI DOWN ON LOW CAPESIZE ACTIVITY
COALspot.com: The freight market was slightly soft this week with BDI down by 4.28 pct week on week. The BDI closed at 1,477 points and the cape ...
Friday, 14 March 14
DRY BULK MARKET ENTERS RECOVERY MODE, ON INCREASED CAPESIZE DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has entered and sustained higher ground as of this week, on the back on increased Capesize demand. Although the situation in ...
Friday, 14 March 14
US, THE WORLD'S SECOND LARGEST COAL PRODUCER MINED 75.3 MMST OF COAL IN FEBRUARY; DOWN 10.88% M-M
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.7 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
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