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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 30 March 14
FREIGHTS FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - REDDY
COALspot.com: The freight market dropped drastically and all sectors were affected severely.
The BDI was down by 14.13 pct and closed at 1, ...
Friday, 28 March 14
US PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 18.9 MMST IN A WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Friday, 28 March 14
CHINA'S ENVIRONMENTAL MEASURES WILL NOT CURB GROWTH IN DOMESTIC STEEL PRODUCTION AND SEABORNE IRON ORE - WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS
Steel plants in China have been targeted as a major source of the toxic smog enveloping Beijing and Shanghai. Emergency measures have been impos ...
Thursday, 27 March 14
PANAMAX : SEEMS TO HEAD FURTHER DOWN; CAPESIZE : ANOTHER CHOPPY AND UNPREDICTABLE WEEK - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
A weaker sentiment for the smaller size as well, with reduced activity in the Atlantic where Owners have to face significantly lower ret ...
Wednesday, 26 March 14
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY PICKS UP PACE ON IMPROVING DRY BULK MARKET CONDITIONS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The gradual improvement of the dry bulk market, as expected for some time now, is urging shipowners to increase their newbuilding ordering activ ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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