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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 20 March 14
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIA TO CHINA RATES HAVE CLIMBED BACK TOWARD USD 11 PMT - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
From a slight improvement in the Atlantic to a more mixed picture this mid week. North Atlantic rounds showing softening signs whereas S ...
Wednesday, 19 March 14
INSTEAD OF DECIDING WHETHER THE GLASS IS HALF FULL OR HALF EMPTY, I AM CURRENTLY GLAD THERE IS WATER IN THE GLASS - EVA TZIMA
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Right when you think that you have all your facts straight, right wh ...
Wednesday, 19 March 14
EUROCOKE SUMMIT 2014
Press Release: ThyssenKrupp, Steel Institute VDEh, SSI and more headline Smithers Apex’s Eurocoke Summit
The leading coke, coal and s ...
Wednesday, 19 March 14
DRY BULK MARKET REBOUND LEADS TO MORE NEWBUILDING ORDERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The steady rise of the dry bulk market, as evidenced by the return, yesterday, of the Baltic Dry Index above the 1,500-point mark (1,518), is fu ...
Tuesday, 18 March 14
SECOND QUARTER SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOST 3.27% IN A MONTH
COALspot.com – Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the thermal coal's swaps for delivery April - June 2014 gained this pa ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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