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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 20 March 14
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIA TO CHINA RATES HAVE CLIMBED BACK TOWARD USD 11 PMT - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
From a slight improvement in the Atlantic to a more mixed picture this mid week. North Atlantic rounds showing softening signs whereas S ...
Wednesday, 19 March 14
INSTEAD OF DECIDING WHETHER THE GLASS IS HALF FULL OR HALF EMPTY, I AM CURRENTLY GLAD THERE IS WATER IN THE GLASS - EVA TZIMA
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Right when you think that you have all your facts straight, right wh ...
Wednesday, 19 March 14
EUROCOKE SUMMIT 2014
Press Release: ThyssenKrupp, Steel Institute VDEh, SSI and more headline Smithers Apex’s Eurocoke Summit
The leading coke, coal and s ...
Wednesday, 19 March 14
DRY BULK MARKET REBOUND LEADS TO MORE NEWBUILDING ORDERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The steady rise of the dry bulk market, as evidenced by the return, yesterday, of the Baltic Dry Index above the 1,500-point mark (1,518), is fu ...
Tuesday, 18 March 14
SECOND QUARTER SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOST 3.27% IN A MONTH
COALspot.com – Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the thermal coal's swaps for delivery April - June 2014 gained this pa ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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