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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 02 April 14
BPI BREAKING BELOW THE 1,000 PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVELS - INTERMODAL
Any resistance put forth by the Dry Bulk market the week prior was succumbed this time round. All indices slid and losses were noted across the ...
Tuesday, 01 April 14
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 11.95 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN MARCH 2014
COALspot.com: In the week ended 31 March 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, total 2 ...
Monday, 31 March 14
SHIPPING CONFIDENCE HITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2008 - MOORE STEPHENS
Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry rose to their highest level for almost six years in the three-month period to February 2014, ...
Monday, 31 March 14
COAL SWAP FOR Q1 2015 DELIVERY HAS CLOSED 4.76% HIGHER COMPARED Q2 14 CLOSING
COALspot.com – Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the thermal coal's swaps for delivery April - June 2014 gained this pa ...
Monday, 31 March 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q2 14 DELIVERY LOST 1.17% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 1.17 percent month on month and closed at US$ 75.38 per m ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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