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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 02 April 14
BPI BREAKING BELOW THE 1,000 PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVELS - INTERMODAL
Any resistance put forth by the Dry Bulk market the week prior was succumbed this time round. All indices slid and losses were noted across the ...
Tuesday, 01 April 14
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 11.95 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN MARCH 2014
COALspot.com: In the week ended 31 March 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, total 2 ...
Monday, 31 March 14
SHIPPING CONFIDENCE HITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2008 - MOORE STEPHENS
Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry rose to their highest level for almost six years in the three-month period to February 2014, ...
Monday, 31 March 14
COAL SWAP FOR Q1 2015 DELIVERY HAS CLOSED 4.76% HIGHER COMPARED Q2 14 CLOSING
COALspot.com – Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the thermal coal's swaps for delivery April - June 2014 gained this pa ...
Monday, 31 March 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q2 14 DELIVERY LOST 1.17% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 1.17 percent month on month and closed at US$ 75.38 per m ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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