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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 07 April 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAINED 2.09% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries gained 2.09 percent month on month and closed at US$ 75.68 per ...
Sunday, 06 April 14
THE FREIGHT MARKET KEEPS SLIDING
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to drop this week. The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) is a widely followed metric that reflects the overall r ...
Friday, 04 April 14
UNITED STATES COAL OUTPUT UP 5.4% IN PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Thursday, 03 April 14
PANAMAX SECTOR IS WATCHING A SEVERE DROP IN RATES - FEARNLEYS
Handy
A further weaker sentiment for the Supras as well in both hemispheres this week with oversupply of tonnage being the major headline. Tra ...
Wednesday, 02 April 14
CHINA: ARBITRATION CLAUSES IN BILLS OF LADING UNDER CHINESE LEGAL PRACTICE - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Successful incorporation of a charterparty arbitration clause into the bills of lading is not a straight forward matte ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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