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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 07 April 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAINED 2.09% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries gained 2.09 percent month on month and closed at US$ 75.68 per ...
Sunday, 06 April 14
THE FREIGHT MARKET KEEPS SLIDING
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to drop this week. The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) is a widely followed metric that reflects the overall r ...
Friday, 04 April 14
UNITED STATES COAL OUTPUT UP 5.4% IN PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Thursday, 03 April 14
PANAMAX SECTOR IS WATCHING A SEVERE DROP IN RATES - FEARNLEYS
Handy
A further weaker sentiment for the Supras as well in both hemispheres this week with oversupply of tonnage being the major headline. Tra ...
Wednesday, 02 April 14
CHINA: ARBITRATION CLAUSES IN BILLS OF LADING UNDER CHINESE LEGAL PRACTICE - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Successful incorporation of a charterparty arbitration clause into the bills of lading is not a straight forward matte ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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