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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 09 April 14
DRY BULK MARKET STRUGGLED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market struggled throughout the week but the poor performance across the board didn't allow for any positive reversal, pushing ...
Tuesday, 08 April 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 2.90 MMT OF POWER PLANT AND SEMI-SOFT COKING COAL IN A WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 7 April 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensla ...
Tuesday, 08 April 14
RBCT SHIPPED 53.79% MORE COAL IN MARCH 2014
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the single largest export coal terminal in the world, shipped 6.90 million to ...
Tuesday, 08 April 14
APRIL 2014 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPS TO LOWEST SINCE JANUARY 2010
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has revised down again the coal bench mark price by US$ 2.20 / MT to ...
Monday, 07 April 14
WEEKLY SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLAIMS EDGE FALL; TREND NEGATIVE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q4’ 2014 lost on month, day and on week according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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