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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 14 April 14
CHINA'S MEASURES TO STIMULATE ECONOMY'S GROWTH COULD OFFER ROOM FOR STABILITY IN SHIPPING MARKETS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Since the outbreak of the 2008-crisis, the shipping industry, in most of its aspects, i.e. dry bulk and tanker markets alike, has been dealing w ...
Sunday, 13 April 14
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT MARKET DECLINE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to drop this week and BDI almost touched 1000 points. BDI closed at 1002 points fell 16.85 pct week o ...
Saturday, 12 April 14
HOW DO YOU CALCULATE LOSS OF EARNINGS FOLLOWING A COLLISION? - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The recent case of Astipalaia vs Hanjin Shenzhen [2014] EWHC 120 (Admlty) has revisited the existing case law on asses ...
Friday, 11 April 14
US COAL PRODUCTION IN MARCH INCREASED 9.69% TO 82.6 MMST MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.10 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 10 April 14
DRY BULK MARKET IS RISING CLAIMS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the recent fall of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), when one compares the first quarter of 2014, to similar quarters of the recent past, it i ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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