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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 16 April 14
Q1 2014 : TERMS OF FREIGHT RATES THE PERFORMANCE IN THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS NOT MET THE HIGH EXPECTATIONS - INTERMODAL
This year the dates for the celebration of Easter will coincide for the Orthodox and the Catholic, so we are already seeing most people in the m ...
Tuesday, 15 April 14
NEWCASTLE SHIPPED MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 14 April 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensl ...
Monday, 14 April 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDO COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 60.12 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q4’ 2014 gain on month and on week according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports rele ...
Monday, 14 April 14
INDONESIA'S Q1 COAL PRODUCTION LITTLE CHANGED EVEN WITH PRICE DROP - INVESTOR DAILY
Indonesia’s coal production by volume in the first quarter remained little changed from the same period last year despite the decline in t ...
Monday, 14 April 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAIN FOR THE MONTH & WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries gained 4.61 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.18 per mt as ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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