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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 16 April 14
Q1 2014 : TERMS OF FREIGHT RATES THE PERFORMANCE IN THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS NOT MET THE HIGH EXPECTATIONS - INTERMODAL
This year the dates for the celebration of Easter will coincide for the Orthodox and the Catholic, so we are already seeing most people in the m ...
Tuesday, 15 April 14
NEWCASTLE SHIPPED MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 14 April 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensl ...
Monday, 14 April 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDO COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 60.12 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q4’ 2014 gain on month and on week according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports rele ...
Monday, 14 April 14
INDONESIA'S Q1 COAL PRODUCTION LITTLE CHANGED EVEN WITH PRICE DROP - INVESTOR DAILY
Indonesia’s coal production by volume in the first quarter remained little changed from the same period last year despite the decline in t ...
Monday, 14 April 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAIN FOR THE MONTH & WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries gained 4.61 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.18 per mt as ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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