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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 21 April 14
DRY BULK MARKET UPS AND - MOST RECENTLY - DOWNS OFFERS NO ROOM FOR RELAXING AMONG DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market's latest demise, with the market retrating once again, since the end of March, has come at a time, when most ship owners ...
Sunday, 20 April 14
FREIGHT RATES END WEEK ON WEAK NOTE - VISTAAR
Wish you all Happy Easter.
The freight market continued to its downwards as BDI was fell 7.187 percent to 930 points week on week.
The ...
Friday, 18 April 14
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 1% TO 18.9 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Thursday, 17 April 14
DRY BULK MARKET ON RETREAT MODE, WHILE NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY STALLS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept on retreating this week, a pattern which emerged since late March. Yesterday the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ended yet a ...
Wednesday, 16 April 14
INDONESIA'S FEBRUARY 2014 COAL EXPORT VOLUME FELL 2.41%
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world 4th largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.77* billio ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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