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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 21 April 14
DRY BULK MARKET UPS AND - MOST RECENTLY - DOWNS OFFERS NO ROOM FOR RELAXING AMONG DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market's latest demise, with the market retrating once again, since the end of March, has come at a time, when most ship owners ...
Sunday, 20 April 14
FREIGHT RATES END WEEK ON WEAK NOTE - VISTAAR
Wish you all Happy Easter.
The freight market continued to its downwards as BDI was fell 7.187 percent to 930 points week on week.
The ...
Friday, 18 April 14
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 1% TO 18.9 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Thursday, 17 April 14
DRY BULK MARKET ON RETREAT MODE, WHILE NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY STALLS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept on retreating this week, a pattern which emerged since late March. Yesterday the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ended yet a ...
Wednesday, 16 April 14
INDONESIA'S FEBRUARY 2014 COAL EXPORT VOLUME FELL 2.41%
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world 4th largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.77* billio ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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