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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 23 April 14
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR LOW VOLATILE BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com : Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd. has invited bids through International open bidding for 90,000 Metric Tons (MT) of low volatile bit ...
Tuesday, 22 April 14
INDONESIAN MARCH COAL EXPORT VOLUME SURGE 9.12% TO 35.54 MMT
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.9 ...
Tuesday, 22 April 14
NEWCASTLE WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS FELL 13.33% THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 21 April 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensl ...
Monday, 21 April 14
Q1'15 SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWING A POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q2’ 2014 gain on month and on week according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports rele ...
Monday, 21 April 14
Q4 2014 AND Q1 2015 COAL SWAPS CLOSED MARGINALLY HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2 PRICES
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries gained 0.87 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.15 per mt as ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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