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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 23 April 14
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR LOW VOLATILE BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com : Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd. has invited bids through International open bidding for 90,000 Metric Tons (MT) of low volatile bit ...
Tuesday, 22 April 14
INDONESIAN MARCH COAL EXPORT VOLUME SURGE 9.12% TO 35.54 MMT
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.9 ...
Tuesday, 22 April 14
NEWCASTLE WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS FELL 13.33% THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 21 April 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensl ...
Monday, 21 April 14
Q1'15 SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWING A POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q2’ 2014 gain on month and on week according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports rele ...
Monday, 21 April 14
Q4 2014 AND Q1 2015 COAL SWAPS CLOSED MARGINALLY HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2 PRICES
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries gained 0.87 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.15 per mt as ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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