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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 25 April 14
US PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 19 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL IN A WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.0 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Friday, 25 April 14
2ND MYANMAR ELECTRIC POWER CONVENTION 2014 IS THE GATEWAY TO MYANMAR POWER INDUSTRY!
Press Release: 2nd Myanmar Electric Power Convention (MEPC) 2014 is scheduled on 21-23 October, 2014 at Traders Hotel in Yangon, Myanmar. MEPC o ...
Friday, 25 April 14
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR NEW TRACTION - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market seems to have gained its footing after the past few dissapointing weeks, during which the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) shedded mos ...
Thursday, 24 April 14
HANDY : A FLOW OF FRESH REQUIREMENTS LIFTING THE PACIFIC SLOWLY TO US$ 10-11 K BSS SINGAPORE FOR COAL ROUNDS
Handy
There is still no place to hide in the Atlantic for the smaller but flexible sizes. Slow and weak seems to be the headlines, although th ...
Wednesday, 23 April 14
EUROPE WOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO REPLACE RUSSIAN GAS, FITCH RATINGS SAYS
A ban on Russian gas imports to the EU would cause substantial disruption to Europe's economy and industry, Fitch Ratings says. In the immed ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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