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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 19 May 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL LOST 2.49% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 2.49 percent month on month and closed at US$ 74.35 per mt as on F ...
Sunday, 18 May 14
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady with the BDI was closed slightly higher at 1027 points or up 3.00 pct week on week.
The Cape ...
Friday, 16 May 14
KOMIPO IS LOOKING FOR 60K MT OF LOW VOLATILE BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com : Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd. has invited bids through International open bidding for 60,000 Metric Tons (MT) of low volatile bitumi ...
Friday, 16 May 14
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED APPROXIMATELY 18.9 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Thursday, 15 May 14
PANAMAX : SHORT PERIOD UP TO ONE YEAR REPORTED IN THE 12.000-12.500 RANGE - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Supra and handy market seems to be affected by the recent holidays in Singapore which still relatively quiet. There are some Indo / ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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