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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 May 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIPS 1.8% WEEK ENDED MAY 17, 2014
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Friday, 23 May 14
DRY BULK NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS COULD HELP SUPPORT MARKET IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market's demise over the past few months maybe has come as a surprise to many, but analysts and shipbrokers are looking forward to ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
HEAR SUCCESSFUL CASE STUDIES FROM 10 INDEPENDENT UNCONVENTIONAL GAS OPERATORS
Unconventional Gas Asia 2014 will provide a unique opportunity for Asia’s unconventional gas leaders to share their experience and expertise ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
CNPC-GAZPROM DEAL A MEDIUM - TERM POSITIVE FOR CHINA'S GAS SECTOR
Fitch Ratings says a 30-year deal in which Russia's OAO Gazprom (BBB/Negative) will supply gas to China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC; A ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
CAPESIZE : RATES ARE STILL UNDER PRESSURE
Handy
A quiet start into the week in Far East, some fresh Indonesian coal order in the market. For trips within S.E. Asia, Supras are trading aro ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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