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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 May 14
TAIPOWER TO IMPORT AROUND 1 MMT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL DURING AUGUST 2014 THROUGH NOVEMBER 2014
COALspot.com - Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 1.050 million tons of sub-bituminous coal for Taipower thermal power plant through open t ...
Monday, 12 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET IS STILL STRUGGLING TO FIND FIRM FOOTING
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to be weak and the BDI closed slightly lower at 997 points or fell 1.96 pct week on week. The cape in ...
Friday, 09 May 14
RBCT SHIPPED 5.4 MMT OF COAL IN APRIL
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the single largest coal export terminal in the world, shipped 5.45 million to ...
Friday, 09 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET: BANKRUPTCY TONNAGE UNLEASHED
Drewry’s latest Dry Bulk Forecaster saw freight rates on most routes declined in 2014’s first quarter as the previous quarter’ ...
Friday, 09 May 14
UNITED STATES COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY SLIDES TO 82.4 MMST IN APRIL
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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