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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 May 14
USA COAL CONFERENCE
Press Release: IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), the leading global source of information and analysis, will host the Coal USA Conference, June 18-20, 2014, ...
Wednesday, 14 May 14
COAL PRICES IN CHINA HAVE DROPPED TO THEIR LOWEST LEVELS SINCE END-2008
COALspot.com: Coal prices in China have dropped to their lowest levels since end-2008, Fitch says in its latest rating report on one of the coal ...
Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to bo ...
Tuesday, 13 May 14
NPC COAL EXPORT VOLUMES PLUNGE TO 2.48 MMT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 12 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Quee ...
Tuesday, 13 May 14
YET ANOTHER POSIDONIA EXHIBITION IS ON ITS WAY - INTERMODAL
With less than a month to go before another Posidonia exhibition starts and all the parties and celebrations get under way we thought that it wo ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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