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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 26 May 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDO COAL SWAP Q1' 15 DELIVERIES CLOSED AT US$ 59.40 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 26 May 14
Q3 14 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS LOST 2.24% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 2.24 percent month on month and closed at US$ 73.88 per mt as on F ...
Monday, 26 May 14
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY RISES BY 78% IN DWT TONNAGE OVER THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF THE YEARS, AS OWNERS INVEST$40.5 BN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners have plunged into newbuilding orders during the first four months of the year, as overall newbuilding business ended for the first four ...
Sunday, 25 May 14
FREIGHT RATES FROM SOUTH KALIMANTAN TO EAST COAST INDIAN PORTS WERE ASSESSED AT $9.50/MT
COALspot.com: The BDI was closed at 964 points down by 6.13 pct week on week. The Cape Index was lost 172 points or 11.24% week on week and closing ...
Saturday, 24 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET'S RECOVERY IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER SAYS SHIPOWNER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the weaker than expected market sentiment in the dry bulk market over the course of the past few months, analysts and shipowners alike appe ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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