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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 30 May 14
US COAL PRODUCTION RELATIVELY FLAT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Thursday, 29 May 14
PEABODY ENERGY CHAIRMAN RECEIVES WCA AWARD
The World Coal Association has presented Gregory H. Boyce, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU), with the 2014 Chairm ...
Thursday, 29 May 14
HANDY : THE SUPRAS ARE BEING TRADED AROUND 13K FOR SHORTER UPTO 1 YEAR PERIOD
Handy
The week started off with bank holidays in London and very little happening. This trend has continued and we believe it will continue into ...
Wednesday, 28 May 14
THE DRY BULK MARKET REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market remained under pressure during this past week, with all indices pointing down compared to the previous Friday. Th ...
Tuesday, 27 May 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 19.13% LESS COAL THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 26 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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