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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 12 June 14
HANDY : TA MARKET IS CONTINUING SOUTH WITH A DECREASE OF 26% W-O-W
Handy
The week started off with holidays in most European countries and the TA market is continuing south with a decrease of 26% w-o-w. We do see ...
Thursday, 12 June 14
CONSOLIDATION IS THE ' NAME OF THE GAME' WHEN IT COMES TO SHIPYARDS ACROSS ASIA - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Intense competition, a swelling of new greenfield shipyards over the past few years mainly in China, especially prior to the 2008 global financial ...
Wednesday, 11 June 14
INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME AND REVENUE SLIPS 2.75% AND 6.73% RESPECTIVELY IN APRIL
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.8* b ...
Wednesday, 11 June 14
BPI TOUCHING A NEW LOW FOR THE YEAR
The Dry Bulk market closed off the week positively, on the back of firming Capesize rates, while the market overall continues to face a very challe ...
Monday, 09 June 14
GOVT GETS TOUGH ON ILLEGAL MINING, SUSPENDS LICENSES - THE JAKARTA POST
The government has temporarily suspended the licenses of 62 mineral and coal transportation companies as part of its efforts to curb illegal mining ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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