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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 19 June 14
PANAMAX: VERY CLOSE TO BREAKING THE ALL TIME LOW RECORD - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Supra-Handy market is experiencing the same market slow down as its bigger sister markets however not to the same extent. We see TA rat ...
Wednesday, 18 June 14
CHINESE STEEL PRODUCTION SETS RECORD DURING FIRST TEN DAYS OF JUNE - COMMODORE RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY
Recently released data shows that average daily crude steel production at China's key steel mills hit a record high of 1.833 million tons durin ...
Wednesday, 18 June 14
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
Back in January the expectations for Q3 and Q4 were more than great. Talks and claims for a rising BDI and a healthy market were coming from everyw ...
Tuesday, 17 June 14
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES TO RISE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF 2014, AS CHINA IS EXPECTED TO START IMPORTING MORE IRON ORE FROM BRAZIL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its latest analysis of the dry bulk market, BIMCO said that it doesn’t expect freight rates to react significantly to increased demand bef ...
Monday, 16 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS FOR Q3 DELIVERY FALL 2.34 % MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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