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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 07 June 14
U.S. MONTHLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN MAY 2014
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.2 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Friday, 06 June 14
RICHARDS BAY COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 4.221 MMT OF COAL TO SOUTHERN ASIAN COUNTRIES IN MAY
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the single largest export coal terminal in the world, shipped 5.58 million tons ...
Thursday, 05 June 14
RBCT SOUTH AFRICA SHIPPED 21% LESS COAL IN APRIL COMPARED TO MARCH EXPORTS
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the single largest export coal terminal in the world, shipped 5.45 million tons ...
Thursday, 05 June 14
PANAMAX : THIS WEEK STARTED IN A SLOW PACE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
After last week's silent and unexciting week we see some more activity this week, especially from the South American market. The rates ...
Thursday, 05 June 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 2.91 MMT OF COAL IN THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The figure constitutes a 4.30 percent higher compared to the previous week, following a week on week decreased of 19.13 percent recor ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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