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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 16 June 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FALL CONTINUES THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 4.34 percent month on month and closed at US$ 71.05 per mt a ...
Sunday, 15 June 14
COAL FREIGHT RATES FALL FURTHER ON LACK OF DEMANDS - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com: The BDI softened this week as all segments fell this week. The Panamax sector being most affected. The Cape index was down 3.51 pct w ...
Friday, 13 June 14
US COAL PRODUCTION FELL 3% IN WEEK THAT ENDED JUNE 7, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Friday, 13 June 14
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON FALLING, DESPITE RESPITE OF THE CAPESIZE SECTOR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept on its lacklustre performance overall, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) still hovering below the 1,000 point mark. Yest ...
Thursday, 12 June 14
INDONESIA SETS HBA FOR MONTH OF JUNE AT US$ 73.64
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has revised up first time in last four months the coal bench mark price. ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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