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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 June 14
INDO SUB-BIT COAL SWAPS FOR Q3,Q4 OF 2014 AND Q1 2015: LOST ON DAY AND MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 continue last week’s trend or lost on day, week and on month according to Asia ...
Monday, 09 June 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP Q3 14 DELIVERIES LOST 4.61% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 4.61 percent month on month and closed at US$ 71.62 per mt a ...
Sunday, 08 June 14
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR PANAMXES TO REMAIN VOLATILE; NO IMPROVEMENTS SEEN OVER THE WEEK
COALspot.com: Cape index increase pushes BDI index to 989 points week on week. The BDI firmed up by 5.88 pct and closed at 989 points week ended 6 ...
Saturday, 07 June 14
EVERYTHING CHANGES, AND NOTHING ABIDES - HERACLITUS
A couple of weeks ago, and while everyone was focusing on the struggling freight market, Russia and China made history by signing a three-decade lo ...
Saturday, 07 June 14
FIRST BITE AT ANTI-CORRUPTION CLAUSE - BIMCO
In recent years a number of countries have introduced anti-corruption legislation which, unfortunately, fails to recognise the practical implicatio ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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