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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 23 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY LOST 8.60% Y-O-Y;4.80% M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 23 June 14
COAL SWAPS DROPS FURTHER MONTH ON MONTH ON WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 6.91 percent month on month and closed at US$ 69.00 per mt a ...
Sunday, 22 June 14
THE PANAMAX COAL FREIGHT FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA SLIPPED THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, fell slightly on Friday ...
Friday, 20 June 14
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR UPSIDE ON ROBUST SEABORNE IRON ORE TRADE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market hasn’t been able to justify the heightened expectations this year. Yesterday, the Baltic Dry Index managed to inch forwar ...
Friday, 20 June 14
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DROPS 1.8% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.3 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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