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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 June 14
COAL DIVESTMENT CAMPAIGNS COME WITH RISKY UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES - WCA
Last week I presented to the Expert Group on investments in coal and petroleum companies, the body set up to advise the Norwegian Government on whe ...
Wednesday, 25 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS ON RISE; EARNINGS FALL ON LOWER SELLING PRICES
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.84* ...
Wednesday, 25 June 14
THE PANAMAX MARKET REACHED FRESH LOWS FOR THE YEAR, SAYS INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off the week noting a slight decrease, but this image of stability is merely representative of freight rat ...
Wednesday, 25 June 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
During his recent visit in London, China's Premier, Li Keqiang, announced that China's economy, the world's second largest after the US ...
Tuesday, 24 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL MINER TARGETS RP 313 BILLION IPO
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal miner PT Mitrabara Adiperdana is aiming to raise up to Rp 313 billion to Rp 368 billion (approximately $26.133 millio ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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