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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 30 June 14
WEEKLY CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES; Q1'15 LOST US$ 4.55 PMT IN A WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in Q3 fell US$ 5.25 month on month on Friday, dipping under $69 a tone. The CFR South Ch ...
Monday, 30 June 14
INDO - INDIA FREIGHT RATES CONTINUE TO WEAK
COALspot.com: The latest dry Index shows that average all-in spot freight declined, the Panamax and Supramax slipping by 9.11 percent and 4% respec ...
Friday, 27 June 14
DRY BULK MARKET STILL LOOKING FOR UPSIDE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept up its lacklustre performance during the past week, as evidenced by the course of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). The BDI ...
Thursday, 26 June 14
PANAMAX : A PACIFIC ROUND PAYS AROUND US$ 3K DAILY - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
In the Atlantic there has been little activity which again has caused rates to slip across all trades. TA´s are now down to US$ 5,500 ...
Thursday, 26 June 14
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR TOTAL 750K MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR 3CY
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) has issued a new tender for supply of total 250,000 MT of bituminous co ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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