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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 02 July 14
THE PANAMAX MARKET CONTINUED TO BLEED FOR ANOTHER WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market succumbed to mounting pressure this past week, while the Capesize market proved unable to “save the day&rdq ...
Wednesday, 02 July 14
HANDY BULKERS PROVE TO BE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS OVER THE PAST WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The Handy dry bulker proved to be the most sought after ship by ship owners active in the second hand market, which saw a slight decline in terms o ...
Wednesday, 02 July 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
After 6 months, 57 ministerial meetings and 67 political agreements, the journey of the Greek Presidency in the EU reached its end yesterday; only ...
Tuesday, 01 July 14
INDIAN POWER PLANT COAL STOCKPILES VERY LOW
COALspot.com: According to today's Weekly Dry Bulk Report published by Commodore Research, Indian power plant coal stockpiles have now fallen t ...
Monday, 30 June 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL PRICES ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO RECOVER
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports release ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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