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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 July 14
US: WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY UP W-O-W
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.4 million short tons (mmst) of coa ...
Friday, 04 July 14
PARAM MITRA COAL RESOURCES SECURES US$ 7.5M INVESTMENT FROM TEMBUSU PARTNERS
Param Mitra Coal Resources Pte Ltd (“PMCR”), which owns two operating coal mines in Indonesia, has secured from Singapore private equit ...
Thursday, 03 July 14
BUMI TRANSFERS 19% OF KPC STAKE VALUED AT US$ 950 MILLION TO CIC
COALspot.com: PT. Bumi Resources announces that 19% of its holdings in Kaltim Prima Coal (KPC), valued at US$ 950 million, has been transferred to ...
Thursday, 03 July 14
PANAMAX : IN THE ATLANTIC, OWNERS ARE WILLING TO FIX AT ABOUT $2.5K PER DAY - FEARNEYS
Handy
In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Fearneys noted that, this week seems to have been more of a wait and see game between owners and ch ...
Wednesday, 02 July 14
NEWMONT FILES FOR INTERNATIONAL ARBITRATION ON ORE EXPORT BAN - THE JAKARTA POST
PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT), a subsidiary of United States-based Newmont Corporation, has filed for international arbitration against the govern ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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