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Wednesday, 19 March 14
INSTEAD OF DECIDING WHETHER THE GLASS IS HALF FULL OR HALF EMPTY, I AM CURRENTLY GLAD THERE IS WATER IN THE GLASS - EVA TZIMA
 By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Right when you think that you have all your facts straight, right when things are stabilizing again for the Dry Bulk market, which was badly battered for the first couple of months of the year but didn’t collapse, a day like last Wednesday comes and makes you reconsider. For most of us who were caught up in the latest news regarding the developments in the Black Sea, the sudden drop of the BDI on Wednesday, caused exclusively by Cape rates plummeting, came as a big slap on the face. And as the market has since shown a cautious yet stable behavior, the drop of last mid-week has somewhat remained away from the spotlight, with some being quick to explain it as just a glitch, which has come and gone fast, probably based on the price performance of iron ore and other commodities. But what exactly caused such a drop in rates?
For the past years, China, the world’s second largest economy, has been considered the pedestal upon which global shipping growth will find a stable footing. The outlook of the dry bulk trade itself, has been inextricably linked to the future of the country’s economy, and despite voices raising concerns every now and then regarding the sustainability of projected growth, formal figures provided by the Chinese government have been reassuring that the country would opt for growth at a slower gear in the coming years, yet a growth that would be more sustainable and at the same time sufficient to drag upwards with it a number of sectors left ailing post 2008.
On Monday last week, news released over the weekend that China’s February exports unexpectedly dropped, sent shockwaves across the markets. This was in fact the biggest drop noted since the financial crisis and an even bigger blow on confidence regarding the country’s growth stability. The data revealed a 18.1% year-on-year decline, while an increase was originally expected. As imports continued growing simultaneously, the country’s trade balance has in fact switched from a surplus in January to a deficit at the end of February, the biggest deficit recorded in the Chinese economy in two years.
The immediate effect, of what was the biggest fall on Chinese exports since August 2009, was the plummeting of the iron ore price for delivery to China, which touched a 17 month low. As the country imports around 2/3 of the global seaborne iron ore, the dry bulk market was destined to feel a big chunk of the pressure mounted. Confidence has dropped quickly especially after the paper market for Q2 2014 took a substantial hit. Talks that due to pressure on commodity prices the Chinese were looking to cancel a number of dry bulk COAs, quickly circulated the market, with rumors mentioning up to forty April onwards soybeans cargoes from ECSA. At the same time, the Capesize Tubarao/Qingdao and Western Australia/China routes noted a sharp fall almost immediately and the domino effect pushed the BDI down.
Currently the market is left a bit numb. The days following Wednesday saw the market noting small daily upticks across the board. It is very difficult at this stage to fully appreciate what the impact regarding Chinese growth will be. Between those who believe that the sharp fall was a correction that just didn’t materialize in a smooth manner and those who see China’s weakening growth shadowing heavily on the long awaited bright days of the dry bulk market, the truth can be most probably found somewhere in the middle. Maybe China’s economy will not grow at the estimated rate, and maybe last week’s glitch was actually a warning sign that shouldn’t be ignored, but at the same time, the fact is that rates are much healthier now than what they were a year ago, so instead of deciding whether the glass is half full or half empty, I am currently glad there is water in the glass.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 21 March 14
MERCURIA ANNOUNCES ACQUISITION OF J.P. MORGAN PHYSICAL COMMODITIES BUSINESS
COALspot.com: Mercuria Energy Group announced that it has reached a definitive agreement with J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. to acquire its physica ...
Thursday, 20 March 14
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIA TO CHINA RATES HAVE CLIMBED BACK TOWARD USD 11 PMT - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
From a slight improvement in the Atlantic to a more mixed picture this mid week. North Atlantic rounds showing softening signs whereas S ...
Wednesday, 19 March 14
EUROCOKE SUMMIT 2014
Press Release: ThyssenKrupp, Steel Institute VDEh, SSI and more headline Smithers Apex’s Eurocoke Summit
The leading coke, coal and s ...
Wednesday, 19 March 14
DRY BULK MARKET REBOUND LEADS TO MORE NEWBUILDING ORDERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The steady rise of the dry bulk market, as evidenced by the return, yesterday, of the Baltic Dry Index above the 1,500-point mark (1,518), is fu ...
Tuesday, 18 March 14
SECOND QUARTER SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOST 3.27% IN A MONTH
COALspot.com – Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the thermal coal's swaps for delivery April - June 2014 gained this pa ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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