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Wednesday, 19 March 14
INSTEAD OF DECIDING WHETHER THE GLASS IS HALF FULL OR HALF EMPTY, I AM CURRENTLY GLAD THERE IS WATER IN THE GLASS - EVA TZIMA
 By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Right when you think that you have all your facts straight, right when things are stabilizing again for the Dry Bulk market, which was badly battered for the first couple of months of the year but didn’t collapse, a day like last Wednesday comes and makes you reconsider. For most of us who were caught up in the latest news regarding the developments in the Black Sea, the sudden drop of the BDI on Wednesday, caused exclusively by Cape rates plummeting, came as a big slap on the face. And as the market has since shown a cautious yet stable behavior, the drop of last mid-week has somewhat remained away from the spotlight, with some being quick to explain it as just a glitch, which has come and gone fast, probably based on the price performance of iron ore and other commodities. But what exactly caused such a drop in rates?
For the past years, China, the world’s second largest economy, has been considered the pedestal upon which global shipping growth will find a stable footing. The outlook of the dry bulk trade itself, has been inextricably linked to the future of the country’s economy, and despite voices raising concerns every now and then regarding the sustainability of projected growth, formal figures provided by the Chinese government have been reassuring that the country would opt for growth at a slower gear in the coming years, yet a growth that would be more sustainable and at the same time sufficient to drag upwards with it a number of sectors left ailing post 2008.
On Monday last week, news released over the weekend that China’s February exports unexpectedly dropped, sent shockwaves across the markets. This was in fact the biggest drop noted since the financial crisis and an even bigger blow on confidence regarding the country’s growth stability. The data revealed a 18.1% year-on-year decline, while an increase was originally expected. As imports continued growing simultaneously, the country’s trade balance has in fact switched from a surplus in January to a deficit at the end of February, the biggest deficit recorded in the Chinese economy in two years.
The immediate effect, of what was the biggest fall on Chinese exports since August 2009, was the plummeting of the iron ore price for delivery to China, which touched a 17 month low. As the country imports around 2/3 of the global seaborne iron ore, the dry bulk market was destined to feel a big chunk of the pressure mounted. Confidence has dropped quickly especially after the paper market for Q2 2014 took a substantial hit. Talks that due to pressure on commodity prices the Chinese were looking to cancel a number of dry bulk COAs, quickly circulated the market, with rumors mentioning up to forty April onwards soybeans cargoes from ECSA. At the same time, the Capesize Tubarao/Qingdao and Western Australia/China routes noted a sharp fall almost immediately and the domino effect pushed the BDI down.
Currently the market is left a bit numb. The days following Wednesday saw the market noting small daily upticks across the board. It is very difficult at this stage to fully appreciate what the impact regarding Chinese growth will be. Between those who believe that the sharp fall was a correction that just didn’t materialize in a smooth manner and those who see China’s weakening growth shadowing heavily on the long awaited bright days of the dry bulk market, the truth can be most probably found somewhere in the middle. Maybe China’s economy will not grow at the estimated rate, and maybe last week’s glitch was actually a warning sign that shouldn’t be ignored, but at the same time, the fact is that rates are much healthier now than what they were a year ago, so instead of deciding whether the glass is half full or half empty, I am currently glad there is water in the glass.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 21 March 14
MERCURIA ANNOUNCES ACQUISITION OF J.P. MORGAN PHYSICAL COMMODITIES BUSINESS
COALspot.com: Mercuria Energy Group announced that it has reached a definitive agreement with J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. to acquire its physica ...
Thursday, 20 March 14
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIA TO CHINA RATES HAVE CLIMBED BACK TOWARD USD 11 PMT - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
From a slight improvement in the Atlantic to a more mixed picture this mid week. North Atlantic rounds showing softening signs whereas S ...
Wednesday, 19 March 14
EUROCOKE SUMMIT 2014
Press Release: ThyssenKrupp, Steel Institute VDEh, SSI and more headline Smithers Apex’s Eurocoke Summit
The leading coke, coal and s ...
Wednesday, 19 March 14
DRY BULK MARKET REBOUND LEADS TO MORE NEWBUILDING ORDERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The steady rise of the dry bulk market, as evidenced by the return, yesterday, of the Baltic Dry Index above the 1,500-point mark (1,518), is fu ...
Tuesday, 18 March 14
SECOND QUARTER SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOST 3.27% IN A MONTH
COALspot.com – Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the thermal coal's swaps for delivery April - June 2014 gained this pa ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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