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Wednesday, 19 March 14
INSTEAD OF DECIDING WHETHER THE GLASS IS HALF FULL OR HALF EMPTY, I AM CURRENTLY GLAD THERE IS WATER IN THE GLASS - EVA TZIMA
 By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Right when you think that you have all your facts straight, right when things are stabilizing again for the Dry Bulk market, which was badly battered for the first couple of months of the year but didn’t collapse, a day like last Wednesday comes and makes you reconsider. For most of us who were caught up in the latest news regarding the developments in the Black Sea, the sudden drop of the BDI on Wednesday, caused exclusively by Cape rates plummeting, came as a big slap on the face. And as the market has since shown a cautious yet stable behavior, the drop of last mid-week has somewhat remained away from the spotlight, with some being quick to explain it as just a glitch, which has come and gone fast, probably based on the price performance of iron ore and other commodities. But what exactly caused such a drop in rates?
For the past years, China, the world’s second largest economy, has been considered the pedestal upon which global shipping growth will find a stable footing. The outlook of the dry bulk trade itself, has been inextricably linked to the future of the country’s economy, and despite voices raising concerns every now and then regarding the sustainability of projected growth, formal figures provided by the Chinese government have been reassuring that the country would opt for growth at a slower gear in the coming years, yet a growth that would be more sustainable and at the same time sufficient to drag upwards with it a number of sectors left ailing post 2008.
On Monday last week, news released over the weekend that China’s February exports unexpectedly dropped, sent shockwaves across the markets. This was in fact the biggest drop noted since the financial crisis and an even bigger blow on confidence regarding the country’s growth stability. The data revealed a 18.1% year-on-year decline, while an increase was originally expected. As imports continued growing simultaneously, the country’s trade balance has in fact switched from a surplus in January to a deficit at the end of February, the biggest deficit recorded in the Chinese economy in two years.
The immediate effect, of what was the biggest fall on Chinese exports since August 2009, was the plummeting of the iron ore price for delivery to China, which touched a 17 month low. As the country imports around 2/3 of the global seaborne iron ore, the dry bulk market was destined to feel a big chunk of the pressure mounted. Confidence has dropped quickly especially after the paper market for Q2 2014 took a substantial hit. Talks that due to pressure on commodity prices the Chinese were looking to cancel a number of dry bulk COAs, quickly circulated the market, with rumors mentioning up to forty April onwards soybeans cargoes from ECSA. At the same time, the Capesize Tubarao/Qingdao and Western Australia/China routes noted a sharp fall almost immediately and the domino effect pushed the BDI down.
Currently the market is left a bit numb. The days following Wednesday saw the market noting small daily upticks across the board. It is very difficult at this stage to fully appreciate what the impact regarding Chinese growth will be. Between those who believe that the sharp fall was a correction that just didn’t materialize in a smooth manner and those who see China’s weakening growth shadowing heavily on the long awaited bright days of the dry bulk market, the truth can be most probably found somewhere in the middle. Maybe China’s economy will not grow at the estimated rate, and maybe last week’s glitch was actually a warning sign that shouldn’t be ignored, but at the same time, the fact is that rates are much healthier now than what they were a year ago, so instead of deciding whether the glass is half full or half empty, I am currently glad there is water in the glass.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 26 March 14
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY PICKS UP PACE ON IMPROVING DRY BULK MARKET CONDITIONS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The gradual improvement of the dry bulk market, as expected for some time now, is urging shipowners to increase their newbuilding ordering activ ...
Wednesday, 26 March 14
LARGE AMOUNT OF VESSELS CHARTERED TO HAUL IRON ORE CARGOES TO CHINESE BUYERS THIS WEEK - COMMODORE RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY
COALspot.com: Through the first three days of this week, 18 dry bulk vessels have been chartered to haul spot iron ore cargoes to Chinese buyers ...
Wednesday, 26 March 14
JOIN IN THE CLEAN COAL CASE STUDY WITH SINOPEC!
Produced by CDMC Events, The 13th Clean Coal Forum 2014 will be held on June 12,13, 2014 in Beijing, China. We are glad to invite Experts ...
Tuesday, 25 March 14
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAP FOR Q2 DELIVERY CLOSED $ 57.40 PMT W/E 21 MARCH 2014
COALspot.com – Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the thermal coal's swaps for delivery April - June 2014 gained this pa ...
Tuesday, 25 March 14
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMP 29.16% TO 2.79 MMT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 24 March 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, total 2.79 ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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