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Wednesday, 19 March 14
INSTEAD OF DECIDING WHETHER THE GLASS IS HALF FULL OR HALF EMPTY, I AM CURRENTLY GLAD THERE IS WATER IN THE GLASS - EVA TZIMA
 By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Right when you think that you have all your facts straight, right when things are stabilizing again for the Dry Bulk market, which was badly battered for the first couple of months of the year but didn’t collapse, a day like last Wednesday comes and makes you reconsider. For most of us who were caught up in the latest news regarding the developments in the Black Sea, the sudden drop of the BDI on Wednesday, caused exclusively by Cape rates plummeting, came as a big slap on the face. And as the market has since shown a cautious yet stable behavior, the drop of last mid-week has somewhat remained away from the spotlight, with some being quick to explain it as just a glitch, which has come and gone fast, probably based on the price performance of iron ore and other commodities. But what exactly caused such a drop in rates?
For the past years, China, the world’s second largest economy, has been considered the pedestal upon which global shipping growth will find a stable footing. The outlook of the dry bulk trade itself, has been inextricably linked to the future of the country’s economy, and despite voices raising concerns every now and then regarding the sustainability of projected growth, formal figures provided by the Chinese government have been reassuring that the country would opt for growth at a slower gear in the coming years, yet a growth that would be more sustainable and at the same time sufficient to drag upwards with it a number of sectors left ailing post 2008.
On Monday last week, news released over the weekend that China’s February exports unexpectedly dropped, sent shockwaves across the markets. This was in fact the biggest drop noted since the financial crisis and an even bigger blow on confidence regarding the country’s growth stability. The data revealed a 18.1% year-on-year decline, while an increase was originally expected. As imports continued growing simultaneously, the country’s trade balance has in fact switched from a surplus in January to a deficit at the end of February, the biggest deficit recorded in the Chinese economy in two years.
The immediate effect, of what was the biggest fall on Chinese exports since August 2009, was the plummeting of the iron ore price for delivery to China, which touched a 17 month low. As the country imports around 2/3 of the global seaborne iron ore, the dry bulk market was destined to feel a big chunk of the pressure mounted. Confidence has dropped quickly especially after the paper market for Q2 2014 took a substantial hit. Talks that due to pressure on commodity prices the Chinese were looking to cancel a number of dry bulk COAs, quickly circulated the market, with rumors mentioning up to forty April onwards soybeans cargoes from ECSA. At the same time, the Capesize Tubarao/Qingdao and Western Australia/China routes noted a sharp fall almost immediately and the domino effect pushed the BDI down.
Currently the market is left a bit numb. The days following Wednesday saw the market noting small daily upticks across the board. It is very difficult at this stage to fully appreciate what the impact regarding Chinese growth will be. Between those who believe that the sharp fall was a correction that just didn’t materialize in a smooth manner and those who see China’s weakening growth shadowing heavily on the long awaited bright days of the dry bulk market, the truth can be most probably found somewhere in the middle. Maybe China’s economy will not grow at the estimated rate, and maybe last week’s glitch was actually a warning sign that shouldn’t be ignored, but at the same time, the fact is that rates are much healthier now than what they were a year ago, so instead of deciding whether the glass is half full or half empty, I am currently glad there is water in the glass.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 13 March 14
HANDY: THE FAR EAST MARKET IS IN AN UPWARD TREND - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Atlantic is a bit under pressure for spot tonnage, but the underlying sentiment is positive for the short medium future. 2-3 legs are do ...
Thursday, 13 March 14
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
By Christopher T. Whitty
Marketing Manager
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
During the last year we have noticed that a fair number of ...
Wednesday, 12 March 14
ADARO ENERGY IMPROVES EFFICIENCY AND GENERATED STRONG EBITDA IN 2013
COALspot.com: PT Adaro Energy Tbk, Indonesia's single largest coal miner posted revenue of US$ 3.28 billion and cost of revenue of US$ 2.54 ...
Wednesday, 12 March 14
DGOMC OF INDONESIA REVISED DOWN THE BENCHMARK PRICES FOR COAL BY 4.26% IN MARCH
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has revised down the government's declared coal bench mark price ...
Wednesday, 12 March 14
DRY BULK VESSELS STILL THE CREAM OF THE CROP FOR SHIP OWNERS
Dry bulk carriers have remained the most popular vessel type among ship owners as proven by the sheer number of second hand vessel sales and new ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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