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Wednesday, 19 March 14
INSTEAD OF DECIDING WHETHER THE GLASS IS HALF FULL OR HALF EMPTY, I AM CURRENTLY GLAD THERE IS WATER IN THE GLASS - EVA TZIMA
 By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Right when you think that you have all your facts straight, right when things are stabilizing again for the Dry Bulk market, which was badly battered for the first couple of months of the year but didn’t collapse, a day like last Wednesday comes and makes you reconsider. For most of us who were caught up in the latest news regarding the developments in the Black Sea, the sudden drop of the BDI on Wednesday, caused exclusively by Cape rates plummeting, came as a big slap on the face. And as the market has since shown a cautious yet stable behavior, the drop of last mid-week has somewhat remained away from the spotlight, with some being quick to explain it as just a glitch, which has come and gone fast, probably based on the price performance of iron ore and other commodities. But what exactly caused such a drop in rates?
For the past years, China, the world’s second largest economy, has been considered the pedestal upon which global shipping growth will find a stable footing. The outlook of the dry bulk trade itself, has been inextricably linked to the future of the country’s economy, and despite voices raising concerns every now and then regarding the sustainability of projected growth, formal figures provided by the Chinese government have been reassuring that the country would opt for growth at a slower gear in the coming years, yet a growth that would be more sustainable and at the same time sufficient to drag upwards with it a number of sectors left ailing post 2008.
On Monday last week, news released over the weekend that China’s February exports unexpectedly dropped, sent shockwaves across the markets. This was in fact the biggest drop noted since the financial crisis and an even bigger blow on confidence regarding the country’s growth stability. The data revealed a 18.1% year-on-year decline, while an increase was originally expected. As imports continued growing simultaneously, the country’s trade balance has in fact switched from a surplus in January to a deficit at the end of February, the biggest deficit recorded in the Chinese economy in two years.
The immediate effect, of what was the biggest fall on Chinese exports since August 2009, was the plummeting of the iron ore price for delivery to China, which touched a 17 month low. As the country imports around 2/3 of the global seaborne iron ore, the dry bulk market was destined to feel a big chunk of the pressure mounted. Confidence has dropped quickly especially after the paper market for Q2 2014 took a substantial hit. Talks that due to pressure on commodity prices the Chinese were looking to cancel a number of dry bulk COAs, quickly circulated the market, with rumors mentioning up to forty April onwards soybeans cargoes from ECSA. At the same time, the Capesize Tubarao/Qingdao and Western Australia/China routes noted a sharp fall almost immediately and the domino effect pushed the BDI down.
Currently the market is left a bit numb. The days following Wednesday saw the market noting small daily upticks across the board. It is very difficult at this stage to fully appreciate what the impact regarding Chinese growth will be. Between those who believe that the sharp fall was a correction that just didn’t materialize in a smooth manner and those who see China’s weakening growth shadowing heavily on the long awaited bright days of the dry bulk market, the truth can be most probably found somewhere in the middle. Maybe China’s economy will not grow at the estimated rate, and maybe last week’s glitch was actually a warning sign that shouldn’t be ignored, but at the same time, the fact is that rates are much healthier now than what they were a year ago, so instead of deciding whether the glass is half full or half empty, I am currently glad there is water in the glass.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 24 March 14
SGX'S Q2'14 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSES SLIGHTLY HIGHER W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 1.81 percent month on month and closed at US$ 74.82 per mt as o ...
Sunday, 23 March 14
THE COAL FREIGHT RATES SEEN SLIGHTLY FIRMING UP THIS WEEK - REDDY
COALspot.com: The freight market firmed up this week. BDI was up 8.26 pct week on week and index was closed at 1599 points. The Cape index was u ...
Saturday, 22 March 14
SHIP OWNERS INVEST $15 BILLION FOR NEWBUILDINGS AND SECONDHAND VESSELS DURING FEBRUARY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners have kept on their aggressive stance in the investment scene both for newbuildings, as well as for secondhand vessels globally durin ...
Friday, 21 March 14
DRY BULK MARKET STAYS ON RECOVERY MODE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has reached new year heighs, as a result of renewed Capesize demand. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended yesterday's sessio ...
Friday, 21 March 14
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 1.5%; WEST MISSISSIPPI COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 1.85% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.0 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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